Journal of Autonomy and Security Studies

The Unsettled Alliance

Gry Thomasen — 2023-08-18

NATO never managed to settle how the Alliance should manage Russia post-Cold War. Consequently, the Alliance is still experiencing an internal dichotomy. This article explores the Alliance dynamics since the end of the Cold War and argues that the North-eastern flank countries’ perceptions of Russia and Russian intentionality appear to be based on fear which lead them to pursue an ever-strengthened forward defence. Moreover, this is seen by the flank to be at odds with their Western allies that are willing to pursue a more cooperative approach to Russia. Risk reduction policies therefore become a potential point of contention between the allies, however also a vehicle for the North-eastern flank to boost the forward defence in the region.

On Body and Soil

Sia Spiliopoulou Åkermark — 2023-08-18

If territory is part of the problem in the quest for peaceful relations, it should also be part of the solution. This is the core argument in the present text, where the work of international lawyer Louis Sohn during the Cold War and efforts towards territorial disarmament across time and space are used as starting points for the exploration of possibilities today, including in the global commons and other territories beyond the jurisdiction of individual states. I explore a range of experiences of territorial disarmament already in operation alongside the opportunities currently offered in the nexus between protection of the environment and armed conflicts. Finally, the recently adopted Kunming-Montreal Global Diversity Framework and the UN Principles on protection of the environment in armed conflict developed by the International Law Commission are looked at as opportunities for the successive protection of territories through various forms of disarmament and neutralisation.

Gender, Sexuality and Emotion in Visual Representations of Sweden Joining NATO

Emma Rosengren — 2023-08-18

This research note introduces gender and feminist theory as important tools for understanding international relations (IR), and uses snapshots from my ongoing research project on gender and disarmament in Swedish security policy during the post-Cold War period to exemplify what feminist contributions to the field can look like. Analyzing media visuals about Sweden’s relationship with NATO during 2022–2023, I argue that such sources draw on well-known societal stereotypes about, for example, gender to make sense to their audiences. The visuals included in this study contribute to destabilize associations between security policy, national identity and masculinity from Cold War Sweden by portraying Swedish politicians as female brides ready to marry male NATO representatives and thereby gain protection within what has previously been conceptualized as a gendered NATO family. Both human bodies and emotions related to fear contribute to make meaning about such representations.

Destabilization of the Arctic

Adele Buckley — 2023-08-18

The Arctic region is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet, with the inevitable result that the economy, natural resources, ocean and land sustenance and all human security factors now require rapid adjustment by both government and population. The circumpolar nations have taken pride in an era of peaceful cooperation. Working together for the common good is a deliberate choice of the circumpolar nations but also a necessity because of the extremely harsh climate that prevails in the Arctic lands and waters. Over the past decade Russia has developed many military bases, extended over the whole of its lengthy northern seacoast. The Arctic is a major economic base for Russia. Undersea, the submarine patrols of the Cold War, by both Russia and the United States, had been drastically reduced. Now military exercises in and near the Arctic are extensive; Chinese military vessels have entered the North Pacific. While military resources of individual countries have occasionally entered the Arctic area, there formerly was genuine support for the ideal of a demilitarized Arctic.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a clear indication that Russia is unpredictable and aggressive. Russia could choose aggressive action in the Arctic. The entire Arctic region is thus destabilized while it waits for the future to unfold. This is a brief review of the current situation of Arctic organizations and countries that intend to benefit by the opening of the Arctic. The composite situation provides a way to discern the ongoing destabilization of the Arctic

Strategic Nuclear Patrols and an Arctic Military Code of Conduct

Ernie Regehr — 2023-08-18

While rising northern tensions clearly challenge notions of the Arctic as a durable zone of peace, current tensions are rooted in fears of a European conflict spilling northward, not in conflict endemic to the Arctic. Two decades of high north military expansion have certainly added to the region’s strategic uncertainty, but more consequential are the currently increasing levels and pace of competing strategic patrols in the Arctic, especially those that undermine basic nuclear deterrence. Proposals for an Arctic code of conduct, designed to avoid provocative behaviour and reduce risks of accidental encounters escalating, seek to preserve the Arctic as a low-tension security environment, and proposals to constraint strategic patrols rest on the same principle. In particular U.S. anti submarine warfare operations aimed at Russia’s sea-based nuclear deterrent forces threaten the latter’s second-strike forces and thus destabilize mutual strategic deterrence. Strategic ASW operations have been of enduring concern and have led to a succession of proposals to constrain such deployments. Those ideas, however, have never been elevated to sustained exploration or drawn into formal arms control negotiations. Early 2023 may not seem a propitious time to revive ideas of anti-submarine warfare constraint, but in the long term, strategic stability and resumed arms control and disarmament will require attention to them.

A Cooperative Regime for the Arctic

Sverre Lodgaard — 2023-08-18

The UN Convention on the Law of the Seas has established a solid legal foundation for Arctic activities, but it does not prevent the geopolitical rivalry between the USA, China and Russia from extending into the region. Joint action to alleviate upcoming tensions are presently on hold because of the war in Ukraine, but in the meantime, cooperative approaches are worth exploring. Two interrelated issues merit particular attention: how to protect sea lines of communication (SLOCs) without triggering big power conflict, and how to deal with the problems posed by nuclear weapons.

INF v. Missile Defence Confrontation and Vulnerabilities of Logistics across the Baltic Sea

Matti Vuorio — 2023-08-18

Three types of problems are discussed in this speech: nuclear missile confrontation, logistics risks across the Baltic Sea as well as communication and electricity undersea networks.

Nuclear Risk in the Arctic and Further

Kati Juva — 2023-08-18

This speech gives a short overview of the existing risks of nuclear war and of the catastrophic humanitarian and climate consequences of even a regional nuclear war.